Modelling Potential Future Urban Land Use Changes in the Sekondi-Takoradi Metropolitan Area of Ghana

Michael Soakodan Aduah, Saviour Mantey

Abstract


Land use/land cover (LULC) of Sekondi-Takoradi metropolitan area of Ghana have changed substantially since the 1980s and the patterns of future LULC of the city will have even greater impacts on the environment, quality of life of residents as well as their health. This study was conducted to simulate the potential future LULC patterns in the city to provide information to support effective spatial planning and sustainable development. The study used the Dyna-CLUE model, Markov chain and logistic regression to simulate potential future LULC patterns. The logistic regression model was used to quantify the relationship between land use change driving factors and land use types, while the Markov chain was applied to estimate two yearly land use demands and the Dyna-CLUE model was applied to simulate dynamically the spatial patterns of multiple land uses. The results show that eight driving factors namely population density, slope, aspect, elevation, distance from roads, distance from rivers, distance from Takoradi town and distance from major urban centres, significantly drive land use/cover changes in the city, with relative operating characteristic (ROC) statistics ranging between 0.72 and 0.98, while the historical land use model was validated with a Kappa statistic of 49% for the entire map and a user accuracy of 75% for the built up land use, indicating a moderate agreement between predicted and observed land use of  2016. The potential future (2020 to 2050) land use maps showed that the built-up area may increase substantially in the next 30 years, replacing shrubs/farms and secondary forests and potentially intensifying the already existing sprawling in the city.


Keywords


Driving Factors, Dyna-CLUE, Land Use Modelling, Logistic Regression, Markov Chain

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References


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